Explaining Fed watchers' mistakes
The authors of this ECB working paper argue that the heterogeneity in the views of private sector Fed watchers is explained by the educational employment backgrounds, as well as by where they are located.
The paper, called "Geography or skills: what explains Fed watchers' forecast accuracy of US monetary policy," finds a substantial degree of heterogeneity in forecast accuracy among Fed watchers.
Based on a novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of
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