Stagflation
Fed cuts by 25bp amid another three-way split on FOMC
Miran votes for deeper cut, and Goolsbee and Schmid opt to hold, as experts point to stagflation risks
Reflections on the international financial situation
Former IMF head Jacques de Larosière writes that markets are blind to Trump's policy shocks that are fragmenting the monetary ‘system’, causing strain in the eurozone and may result in stagflation
Fed holds rates as experts sound alarm over stagflation
FOMC says risks have risen on both the employment and inflation sides of its mandate
Experts divided over contraction in US economy
Ex-NY Fed chief says latest figures are an anomaly, though others point to Trump policies’ impact
FOMC holds rates amid uncertainty and stagflation risks
Fed chair Jay Powell says inertia also a factor as committee opts for caution
US stagflation risk is significant and rising, experts say
Path of tariffs will largely determine level of risk, academics tell Central Banking
Bank of England holds rates in second split decision
UK faces two years of above-target inflation and near-zero growth, forecasts the BoE
Dollar’s commodities link is creating risks, BIS paper warns
Simultaneous rises in dollar and commodities prices could harm stability, researchers say
Kganyago calls for lower inflation target and tighter policy
Sarb governor urges reform of South Africa’s troubled transport and electricity sectors
UN body warns central banks could set off global recession
UNCTAD report calls for price controls rather than rate hikes
Netherlands not facing wage-price spiral – DNB
Central bank says there is space to increase negotiated wages in the Dutch economy
How central bank mistakes after 2019 led to inflation
Central banks must acknowledge their own mistakes and outline concrete steps to restore the public’s confidence in their ability to ensure price stability, write Graeme Wheeler and Bryce Wilkinson*
Little risk of stagflation in Netherlands, says DNB
Wages are no longer inflation-linked and profits are higher, the Dutch central bank confirms.
US risks slipping back into secular stagnation, says Rajan
Fed has “good chance” of defeating inflation but US economy has deeper problems, economist says
Romania meets inflation spike with rate hike
Central bank adds 75bp to policy rate as inflation passes 10% mark and economy sputters
Fractures in the monetary system
Seizure of Bank of Russia assets likely to have long-term implications for international system
MAS’s Tharman urges investor action on global instability
War, stagflation risk, climate crisis, pandemic and uneven growth create “perfect long storm”
Permanent or transitory? Officials wrestle with inflation uncertainty
Bailey warns of possible damage to credibility, but Carstens urges caution amid high uncertainty
Clarida: ‘Stagflation is not my baseline case’
Fed vice-chair says inflation situation not akin to 1970s
IMF: growth prospects dim as pandemic lingers
Fund revises down growth forecasts, warning of inflation, disruption and divergence
Larry Summers on stagflation risks, lessons from Delphi and never-ending ‘punch’
The former US Treasury secretary speaks about fiscal ‘overexpansion’, Fed/Treasury debt discord, the pitfalls of ‘unknown unknowns’ and central bankers ‘unable’ to remove the ‘punchbowl’