Spreads
Zoltán Kurali on Hungary’s reserves strategy and euro adoption
The MNB deputy governor speaks about portfolio positioning amidst geopolitical volatility, AI, CBDC and the future of the forint
ECB finds holes in banks’ credit spread risk nets
Banks censured for insufficient evidence to support exclusion of products from CSRBB perimeter
Stablecoins pose bigger risks to US than to EU – de Guindos
ECB vice-president also expresses hope that “populist movements in Europe do not prevail”
Yield spreads of bonds held by mutual funds decline in QE – ECB paper
Bond purchase programmes compress risk premia and boost demand, research finds
The battle for the future of central banks
Inflation-targeting institutions must not simply defend against overt interference, they must also resist a sly erosion of their authority, writes Biagio Bossone
Tobias Adrian on the integrated policy framework amid tariff shocks
The IMF’s financial counsellor speaks about policy reaction functions to supply and demand shocks, scenario-based analyses, Treasury market dynamics and emerging market resilience
Reflections on the international financial situation
Former IMF head Jacques de Larosière writes that markets are blind to Trump's policy shocks that are fragmenting the monetary ‘system’, causing strain in the eurozone and may result in stagflation
Maurice Obstfeld on the trade war’s damage to the monetary system
The former IMF chief economist speaks about Trump’s chaotic economic policies, the erosion of Fed independence and dollar stability, difficult policy trade-offs for central banks, and the threat to the Bretton Woods institutions
Inside the week that shook the US Treasury market
Rates traders on the “scary” moves that almost broke the world’s safest and most liquid investment
US Treasury volatility highlights repo market risks
Yields spiked overnight as tariffs came into effect, piling pressure on heavily leveraged hedge funds
Can Bessent lower 10-year yields? Investors have their doubts
Unconventional tools won’t sway bond markets, say buy-siders, with yields as likely to go higher as lower
Beyond the benchmark: redesigning emerging market debt allocations
Franklin Templeton analysis shows popular EMD indexes are limited by their focus on the largest and most developed countries in the world, resulting in unattractive spreads and limited risk diversification
Central banking amid uncertainty and Trump 2.0
Deglobalisation set to challenge the central banking orthodoxy of the past 40 years
Vix spike in August not driven by actual volatility – BIS
Latest bulletin explains how widening bid-ask spreads drove up the index
Lending spreads may dampen monetary policy – research
Rate hikes appear to have been muffled and cuts might be too, say Kansas City Fed authors
Full-scale war with Hezbollah is a tail-end event – Bank of Israel deputy
Andrew Abir says central bank has advised government to ensure adequate fiscal space as it expects war to last longer and revises its growth and inflation forecasts
Book notes: Number go up: inside crypto’s wild rise and staggering fall, by Zeke Faux
The book would be a great, comic obituary of crypto, if only crypto were dead
Ghana’s Ernest Addison on the chain of events that led to a loss of $5 billion
The Bank of Ghana governor speaks with Christopher Jeffery about what necessitated monetary financing, the boundaries of ‘independence’ and the results of offline tests of the e-cedi
Asian bond spreads with US not widening, BIS research finds
Central banks’ actions have decoupled EME bonds from stronger dollar, researchers say
Joachim Nagel on the ECB’s terminal rate, fiscal policy, model relevance and the digital euro
The Deutsche Bundesbank president speaks about compromise on the Governing Council, rolling back PEPP, the need to implement Basel III and the chances of a revised Stability and Growth Pact
Ecuador approves contingent credit line
Flar offers up to $230 million to Central Bank of Ecuador