News/Economics
BoE economists find CBDC could permit helicopter money
Helicopter drop could be feasible without losing control of rates but may still be unwise, authors say
Trade tensions could ripple among South-east Asian nations – Menon
Rising leverage ratios a key risk for EM Asia, but the region is more resilient
SBP launches Islamic facility to fund renewables and SMEs
Central bank looks to supply liquidity to key industries
Chinese lending hits all-time high in January
Total social financing reached roughly 240% of China’s GDP at end of month
UK economy stumbles as Brexit looms
Quarterly growth slips to 0.2% in final quarter of 2018, and monthly growth turns negative in December; business investment also down
Low rates can harm productivity, say Liu, Mian and Sufi
Low rates may end up discouraging investment across the economy, authors say
Key Brexit vote complicates outlook for UK economy
Vote this evening leaves UK’s political and economic future uncertain; analysts optimistic on outlook for sterling
BIS’s Borio calls on economists to take money more seriously
Money is too often explored in isolation, or ignored completely, the BIS economist says
Blanchard calls for rethink on costs of debt
Fiscal cost of public debt may be zero, macroeconomist argues, but that does not make debt costless
Lower oil prices and stronger lira send Turkey and Argentina diverging
In 2019, analysts expect inflation to drop sharply in Argentina and to bounce back in Turkey
Oxford academic argues Milton Friedman is misunderstood
James Forder says Friedman had a bigger impact on neoclassical economics than on monetarism
IMF’s Adrian calls for forecasting upgrade
Policy forecasts should do a better job of capturing endogenous risk, economist says
Africa at risk from faster policy normalisation – Kenya’s Nyaoga
Higher interest rates could threaten portfolio inflows for a region struggling with price rises
Haldane to lead effort to boost UK productivity
BoE chief economist appointed chair of the Industrial Strategy Council
Solid US economy contributes to higher 10-year Treasury yields
Inverted yield curve less likely as long-term growth and inflation expectations rise
Nafta deal to reduce uncertainty in Canada and Mexico
Regional rate-setters have become increasingly concerned about effects of trade disruptions
Italy’s expansionary budget increases pressure on debt
Draghi warns government plans have tightened financial conditions for households and businesses
Automation of financial services poses problem for labour market
Central bankers fear the labour market may not recover as quickly as during previous technological revolutions
Carney warns no-deal Brexit would squeeze real income
Governor informs Treasury Committee of household “real income squeeze” in the event of a no-deal Brexit; Mervyn King calls government’s Brexit preparations “incompetent”
IMF authors dismiss global Phillips curve as euro inflation driver
Domestic factors largely behind “remarkably stable” inflation in eurozone
Jackson Hole: policy-makers come to defence of disruption
Poloz and Carstens highlight benefits of technological and trade disruption; monetary policy can cope with the uncertainty, Bank of Canada governor says
New York Fed publishes nowcasting code
Matlab code for estimating a dynamic factor model now available in online repository
Zimbabwean economy faces uncertainty after controversial election result
Violence and accusations of unfairness around the presidential election have dampened hopes of economic recovery
Podcast: David Vines on how to reform the DSGE model
Oxford University’s David Vines believes the New Keynesian DSGE model is salvageable – but needs some serious work