Macroeconomics
BIS’s Borio calls on economists to take money more seriously
Money is too often explored in isolation, or ignored completely, the BIS economist says
Blanchard calls for rethink on costs of debt
Fiscal cost of public debt may be zero, macroeconomist argues, but that does not make debt costless
India vulnerable to oil shocks – RBI research
Study weighs effects of oil shocks on current account, inflation and government finances
Euro area wage growth appears sustainable – ECB bulletin
ECB wage analysis shows increases are no longer being driven primarily by ‘wage drift’
EME banks have ‘substantially’ increased global footprint – BIS research
Study finds emerging market banks have taken a greater role as their home economies have grown
Lower oil prices and stronger lira send Turkey and Argentina diverging
In 2019, analysts expect inflation to drop sharply in Argentina and to bounce back in Turkey
ECB unveils richer eurozone forecasting model
“NAWM II” models financial sector’s role in originating and propagating economic shocks
Atlanta Fed launches new rental market data tool
The affordability tracker sheds a new light on how many households in the region are struggling to find affordable housing
Can central bank revamp help Tunisia remain a ‘public good’?
Central Bank of Tunisia moves to modernise, but faces tough times ahead
Africa at risk from faster policy normalisation – Kenya’s Nyaoga
Higher interest rates could threaten portfolio inflows for a region struggling with price rises
Tunisia’s El Abassi on central banking during a regional security crisis
Central Bank of Tunisia’s governor talks about capacity building, evolving relations with the IMF, integration among the Arab states and using technology to foster inclusion
IMF calls for fiscal consolidation in anticipation of next crisis
As global financial conditions tighten, emerging economies record higher corporate and sovereign debt
Haldane examines ‘puzzling pattern’ of weak wage growth
Average weekly wages are now lower than before the crisis, in real terms
Globalisation becomes more divisive as it advances – Dani Rodrik
Harvard economist says gains from trade may not outweigh redistributive problems
Market power, intangibles and risk premia behind low risk-free rates – paper
Brookings paper questions savings glut and technological slowdown hypotheses
IMF warns low-income countries about higher debt risks
Increased exposure to non-traditional lenders could increase rates and shorten maturities
Book notes: The other half of macroeconomics, by Richard Koo
Richard Koo questions whether central bank policy can work during a balance sheet recession, writes Graham Bannock
Denmark should avoid fiscal stimulus to preserve balanced recovery – central bank
Government should be ready to tighten public spending to prevent the economy from overheating
Juan José Echavarría on Colombia’s path to sounder monetary and economic policy
The governor of the Central Bank of Colombia talks about policy efforts to promote stability, the importance of independent institutions and the implications of Venezuela’s economic collapse
Automation of financial services poses problem for labour market
Central bankers fear the labour market may not recover as quickly as during previous technological revolutions
Carney warns no-deal Brexit would squeeze real income
Governor informs Treasury Committee of household “real income squeeze” in the event of a no-deal Brexit; Mervyn King calls government’s Brexit preparations “incompetent”
Inattention helps explain flat Phillips curve – Fed paper
Inflation may be less sensitive to shocks because people are not paying attention, authors say
Weidmann urges Greece to implement further reforms
Deutsche Bundesbank president recommends additional reforms and “sound” fiscal policy
Thailand’s macroeconomic policy at a ‘turning point’ – Santiprabhob
Policy will have to evolve to support the economy rather than stimulate it, governor says