Economics
Debt securities still key in capital flows to EMEs – BIS
Latest global liquidity statistics show ongoing growth in euro and dollar liquidity
Global cross-border lending growth at highest rate since 2008
Bank claims continued to grow “rapidly” in Q3 2019, latest BIS figures show
Angola’s central bank establishes inflation expectation indicators
Central bank issues new surveys to gather information on prices following exchange rate liberalisation
Remittances can cause volatility if concentrated – IMF paper
Flows of remittances are broadly stabilising for the receiving country, but not if they are too concentrated, paper finds
Paper takes ‘Hank’ approach to eurozone policy transmission
Authors identify three key dimensions of household heterogeneity
IMF cuts forecast again, but says slowdown may be ending
Fresh downward revision to growth outlook set against “tentative stabilisation”, says Gita Gopinath
Paper models monetary policy in a ‘Hank’ framework
Authors combine micro and macro “moments”, finding investment is “crucial” to policy transmission
Spanish governor calls for consolidation and reforms to preserve growth
Hernández de Cos highlights Spain’s stronger export sector after financial crisis
BIS statistics committee to focus on fintech and big data in 2020
Irving Fisher Committee plans to complete its fintech work and update a 2015 survey
CAR renews IMF support amid ‘volatile’ security situation
New three-year deal designed to shore up peace agreement
Demographic change could mark end of economic growth – NBER paper
Shrinking populations could cause knowledge and living standards to stagnate, author says
ECB paper looks at role of uncertainty in central bank comms
Researchers use machine learning to study market reactions to BoE inflation reports
Inflation expectations risk continuing downward trend – John Williams
New York Fed president urges policy-makers to hold themselves accountable for below-target inflation
Trump’s tax cuts boosted growth and jobs – Dallas Fed paper
Researcher uses state-level data on tax cuts to estimate national impact
Ageing populations will keep interest rates low – BdF paper
Housing availability can attenuate decline in rates, authors find
BoE paper: simple communication can backfire
Success of communication is not measured by number of people reached, paper states
Rates have been falling for eight centuries – BoE research
Study casts doubt on major theories, including secular stagnation; author warns rates could “soon enter permanently negative territory”
Central bank research may be too focused on narrow topics – paper
Network analysis finds many central banks are limited in the scope of their research
Machine learning can produce better credit scores – BIS paper
Fintech firms may be better at predicting default rates, researchers find
Macroeconomics is not broken
The discipline has moved beyond the neoclassical synthesis. Critics should too
Network effects magnify impact of US monetary policy – BdF paper
Researchers find that impact of US monetary policy is increased by complex cross-border interactions
Claudio Borio says central bank independence is tied to globalisation
Both are underpinned by the same “economic and political zeitgeist”, the BIS economist says
Dutch corporate sector is key source of current account surplus
SMEs save to finance investment due to higher borrowing rates than large companies
‘Green finance’ standards ineffective with smaller firms – BdF paper
Banks lend to smaller firms irrespective of their industries’ polluting records, researcher says