Research
US credit application rejections increase sharply
Automobile loan rejections hit highest level since NY Fed began measuring in 2013
‘Supercore inflation’ is a key indicator, Fed paper argues
Non-housing core service prices behaved very differently in 2019 and 2021, researchers say
ECB paper analyses carbon pricing schemes
Rising compliance costs can push firms away from green innovation, paper finds
Forward guidance loses power when rates rise, RBI research finds
Tool is useful at lower bound but is much less effective during normal conditions, paper argues
ECB paper models ‘state-dependent’ impact of capital ratios
Model simulates ratio changes’ effects on credit supply in different macro-financial conditions
Collateral use could destabilise markets, BIS economists warn
Borio and co-authors highlight “seismic shift” in markets and call for action by policy-makers
Researchers use natural language processing to estimate inflation
Applying NLP techniques to earnings calls provides useful economic indicators, paper says
New York Fed completes global digital dollar proof of concept
Wholesale CBDC project tested 24/7 payment and settlement
Hank model sheds light on fiscal theory of the price level – paper
Adding heterogeneity allows FTPL models to reflect persistent government deficits, economists find
Crypto tax would be lucrative but challenging, IMF paper says
Authors say authorities face problems categorising and tracking cryptocurrency activity
US pandemic savings depleted by Q1 2023, says Fed research
Other advanced economies should expect pandemic-era savings to deplete within the year
Researchers examine Covid-19’s impact on eurozone lending
Pandemic changed banks’ lending but did not lead to widespread cut in collateral values, paper finds
Low rates have small effect on bank profitability – researchers
A 100bp rate cut results in 5bp fall in banks’ net interest margins on average, study shows
No significant risk of US recession – St Louis Fed research
Sahm Rule and leading economic data indicate low – but not zero – recession risk
NBER paper estimates demand for bank reserves in US
Fed needs global estimates of demand curve slope to maintain interest rate control, authors say
US housing inflation will slow in early 2024, Dallas Fed paper says
Researcher uses vector error correction model to estimate housing market pressures
Liquidity buffers had mixed impact during Covid-19, ECB paper finds
Higher buffers for funds slowed initial fire sales but had less impact during “peak phase”
Chile’s cash use has rebounded since pandemic, survey finds
Cash remains the primary payment method for small purchases, though card use has risen
More central clearing could have eased Covid shock – BoE paper
Efficiencies for dealer balance sheets could allow banks to play greater stabilising role, authors say
Eurozone carbon tax hike would cause small GDP fall, paper finds
Raising tax to rate consistent with net zero would create only transient inflation, researchers say
ECB paper examines green regulation’s productivity impact
Tougher rules seem to hurt productivity, but might raise it over longer horizons, researchers say
Data privacy laws can boost fintech lending – BIS paper
Study finds Californian law led to more data being shared with fintech firms
Boston Fed paper looks at wider impact of banking stress
High levels of leverage magnify impact of bank crises on output and employment
Hank model reveals monetary non-neutrality
Inequality and zero lower bound suggest monetary policy can impact long-term real rates