Type of uncertainty matters for modelling – Norges Bank paper
Author develops method to “disentangle” various forms of uncertainty
Uncertainty can have both good and bad effects, so identifying the correct kind matters when studying its effects, a paper published on April 18 by Norges Bank finds.
Vegard Høghaug Larsen uses ‘Latent Dirichlet Allocation’, a form of text analysis, in the paper Components of uncertainty. This allows him to “disentangle” different types of uncertainty by analysing news articles. The paper differs from similar work by employing a “topic model”, which focuses on types of news rather than relevant
Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.
To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@centralbanking.com or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.centralbanking.com/subscribe
You are currently unable to print this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. Printing this content is for the sole use of the Authorised User (named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions - https://www.infopro-insight.com/terms-conditions/insight-subscriptions/
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. Copying this content is for the sole use of the Authorised User (named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions - https://www.infopro-insight.com/terms-conditions/insight-subscriptions/
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
More on Economic modelling
Schnabel: ECB could replace central forecast scenario
ECB should consider using alternative scenarios and dot plots to convey uncertainty, official says
Taking stock of Bernanke: the original sin of forecasting
Jagjit Chadha says the Bernanke review should be the start of more profound discussion at the BoE
Bernanke calls for total redesign of BoE forecasting
Report calls for major changes to infrastructure, core models, staffing, communications and more
Bank of England: time for fourth-generation forecasting tools?
Economists suggest ways to improve BoE’s framework ahead of Bernanke’s report
ECB to explore nature-related risk in environmental plan
Climate change and biodegradation are “two sides of the same coin”
Bailey hints at possible outcome of Bernanke review
Bank of England may present range of scenarios around central forecast
Profit now key driver of inflation, BIS research finds
Recent surge in prices “fundamentally different” to that of the 1970s
Bank of Canada maps path to ‘fourth-generation’ models
Officials plan to create new workhorse model backed by variants focusing on key topics
Most read
- Supervisors grapple with the smaller bank dilemma
- Fed policy-makers disagree over risks
- Central bank of the year: Central Bank of Brazil