Explicit communication from Sarb helped agents predict rate hikes – paper
Authors compare forecasts from 2013 and 2014 to identify whether specific terminology affected forecasting
The use of the term "rising cycle" by policy-makers from the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) helped economic experts and financial market participants to predict subsequent rate hikes correctly, according to a paper published by the central bank.
Throughout 2014, the Sarb "explicitly" communicated that monetary policy would be on a rising cycle until normalisation was reached.
Since the "rising cycle" talk occurred in early 2014, Alain Kabundi and Ntuthuko Tsokodibane compare the forecasts in
Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.
To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@centralbanking.com or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.centralbanking.com/subscribe
You are currently unable to print this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. Printing this content is for the sole use of the Authorised User (named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions - https://www.infopro-insight.com/terms-conditions/insight-subscriptions/
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. Copying this content is for the sole use of the Authorised User (named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions - https://www.infopro-insight.com/terms-conditions/insight-subscriptions/
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
More on Communication
Maximising the impact of banknote communications
Antti Heinonen highlights the ongoing evolution in how central banks talk about their banknotes
Fed officials say strong economy gives them flexibility and time
Kugler, Barkin and Powell say upside and downside risks are evening out over time
Bank of Jamaica says free concerts help comms strategy
Central bank has run lunch-hour reggae concerts for two decades to engage with public
Training central bank communicators
The skills needed for communicating in a social media and artificial intelligence world
Communicating uncertainty helps curb expectations – BoC paper
But conveying uncertainty about inflation weakens link between inflation and spending plans
RBNZ’s Orr backs use of indigenous language
Governor defends services in Māori as new government vows to cut use of indigenous language
UK financial institutions are ‘global public good’, says Bailey
BoE governor warns against fragmentation, criticises Brexit and discounts rate cuts
‘Conceptual complexity’ has risen in BoE publications, research finds
Conceptual complexity plays central role in expectations, understanding and trust, authors find