Models using service inflation better at predicting economic trends, Cleveland Fed paper finds

cleveland-federal-reserve
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Economic forecasting accuracy improves notably when based on models that exploit relationships between services inflation and the unemployment rate, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland research paper.

Forecasting Inflation: Phillips Curve Effects on Services Price Measures, by Ellis Tallman and Saeed Zaman, estimates an empirical model of inflation that exploits a Phillips curve relationship between a measure of unemployment and a sub-aggregate measure of inflation.

Tallman and

Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.

To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@centralbanking.com or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.centralbanking.com/subscribe

You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.

Sorry, our subscription options are not loading right now

Please try again later. Get in touch with our customer services team if this issue persists.

New to Central Banking? View our subscription options

Register for Central Banking

All fields are mandatory unless otherwise highlighted

This address will be used to create your account

You need to sign in to use this feature. If you don’t have a Central Banking account, please register for a trial.

Sign in
You are currently on corporate access.

To use this feature you will need an individual account. If you have one already please sign in.

Sign in.

Alternatively you can request an individual account

.