Sarb research updates forecasting model
Authors refine central bank's semi-structural general equilibrium model
The South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) published updates to its semi-structural general equilibrium forecasting model in a working paper on August 12.
Central banks tend to use simpler semi-structural models instead of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models or large-scale econometric models when forecasting, for their better predictive power and avoidance of the Lucas critique, as Shaun de Jager, Michael Johnston and Rudi Steinbach explain in their paper, A revised quarterly projection
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